Notes about the Iranian nuclear political issue
Gene Michael Stover
created Thursday, 2006 January 12
updated Wednesday, 2006 May 24
Scott Ritter, a marine & former weapons inspector for the
United Nations in Iraq, claims that the change of regime in
Iraq was planned by the United States for at least a decade
before it actually happened. He claims that, due to a law
passed by Congress (& which I can't remember), it was
actually official, public policy.
He predicts that the same is happening with Iran.
To test his prediction, or to witness it as it happens, I'm
keeping track of the Iranian political mess as it unfolds.
Highly recommended reading:
[15]
- Brittain
- foreign minister, Jack Straw
- European Union
- France
- Germany
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
- Iran
- a democracy with a poor record of human rights
[3]. Says it wants nuclear energy.
Everyone else is afraid it wants nuclear weapons.
- deputy head of the Supreme National Security
Council (SNSC), Javad Vaeedi
- president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He has said that
the holocaust was a myth.
[6]
- spokesman for Supreme National Security Council
(SNSC), Hossein Entezami
- Russia
- a ``key nuclear ally of Iran''
[13].
- United Nations
- USA
- secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice
- vice president, Dick Cheney
- 2002 ???
- Iran's secret nuclear program is made un-secret.
- Iran announces that it intends to develop nuclear
energy.
- 2002 Nov
- At least one person predicts that Bush will
try to invade Iran after
Iraq. [2]
- 2005 October 5
- A British diplomat accuses Iran of
manufacturing some of the bombs which are used by the
anarchists in Iraq. [5]
- 2006 Jan 10
- Iran breaks the IAEA's seals on three
nuclear research(?) sites, including Natanz.
[7],
[12]
- 2006 Jan 12
- Brittain, Germany, & France call for UN Security
Council action. [7]
Iran says diplomacy ``within a time frame'' is still viable.
Iran says it's in compliance with IAEA
regulations.1 [7]
About this ``within a time frame'' detail: Is that a way
of being beligerent, or is it a way of motivating other
countries to get down to business & talk instead of
trailing Iran along while those other countries complain
that Iran isn't negotiating?
See Section 4.1 Score card for
2006 January 12.
- 2006 Jan 15
- US Senators from both major parties want the UN to
create sanctions to motivate Iran to cease its nuclear
program. [1]
- 2006 Mar 06
- IAEA board meeting (scheduled)
- 2006 Mar 13
- President Bush begins accusing Iran of
manufacturing bombs used in Iraq. [8],
[9] Note that this is not the
source of the accusations. The British began them in 2005
October & the American press adopted them about a week
ago.
- 2006 Mar 16
- President Bush claims that Iran is the
greatest threat that the United States faces today. He
says a diplomatic solution is preferable, but he repeats
that the United States will pre-emptively attack any
country that it believes is a threat.
Iran says it would be happy to discuss Iraq.
[10],
[14],
[4]
Also see some comments of 2006 Mach
16 in
[17].
4.1 As of 2006 January 12
- Brittain
- stops negotiations; wants UN Security
council action
- European Union
- says Russia should produce the nuclear
fuel for Iran (instead of Iran producing its own fuel)
- France
- stops negotiations; wants UN Security council
action
- Germany
- stops negotiations; wants UN Security council
action
- Iran
- wants negotiations; is within IAEA regulations;
continues claims that it will not resume uranium enrichment;
is not worried about UN sanctions because they would hurt
Europe more than Iran
- Russia
- is helping Iran build a nuclear power station
at Gulf port of Bushehr
- United Nations
- USA
- says Iran has ``shattered the basis for negotiations'';
wants Iran to halt is nuclear program; has not
requested any particular actions from the UN Security
Council
4.2 As of 2006 January 15
- Brittain
- stops negotiations; wants UN Security
council action
- European Union
- says Russia should produce the nuclear
fuel for Iran (instead of Iran producing its own fuel)
- France
- stops negotiations; wants UN Security council
action
- Germany
- stops negotiations; wants UN Security council
action
- Iran
- wants negotiations
- claims it is within IAEA regulations
[11]
- claims it has allowed 1,400 men/hour of inspections
[11]2
- says it is discussing the fuel deal with Russia
[11]
- Russia
- is helping Iran build a nuclear power station
at Gulf port of Bushehr
- United Nations
- USA
- says Iran has ``shattered the basis for negotiations'';
Senators call for UN sanctions [1]
My personal thought: When Senator McCain
said ``There is only one thing worse than the United
States exercising a military option, that is a
nuclear-armed Iran'' [1], I know for sure that the
villification of Iran has begun (as Ritter predicted).
Another personal thought: Senator Bayh
must have been worried that McCain's message was too
oblique, so he said ``Iran is the foremost sponsor of
terrorism in the world. Iran is a menace. They have to
be dealt with. Appeasement will not work. Nice words
will not work''.
5 Questions & Answers
Specifically, why would Iran want nuclear energy when the
USA & many other countries have decided its costs are not
worth its benefits due to bad experiences in the past? Is
it realistic, conceivable, that Iran could want nuclear
energy & not weapons?
I think it is conceivable that they would want nuclear
energy. Nuclear energy is not used as much as it could
be.3 If Iran's government thinks its nuclear industry
can solve the technical problems & produce cheaper,
safer nuclear energy, it would benefit its own economy
(cheap energy & lots of it) and make a good
profit by entering the international nuclear energy industry
building nuclear energy grids for other countries (for
a price, of course). (The other countries would be willing
to convert because Iran would have proved that it
was cost-effective & safe.)
Basically, Iran's government might be hoping that nuclear
energy would help their economy much the same as a
massively overhauled communications network has helped
that of South Korea.
These benefits might be magnified by Iran's proximity
to oil-rich countries (Iraq, S'audi Arabia, & some of
the former Soviet countries). Maybe Iran hopes to
market itself as an alternative to its oil-merchant
neighbors. (If so, will its oil-rich neighbors
become hostile to Iran?)
It is also possible that they would hope to alleviate
their polution problem by switching to nuclear
energy. [16]
So yes, it is conveivable that a sane Iranian
government would want to develop nuclear energy,
not nuclear weapons.
5.2 When breaking seals, is Iran within IAEA
regulations?
5.3 What is uranium enrichment? Why is it a cause
for worry?
fixme. Needs more detail.
``Low-grade'' uranium is suitable for fuel but not weapons.
``High-grade'' uranium is suitable for fuel & weapons.
Brittain, France, & Germany are afraid that, if Iran
manufactures its own fuel, it will produce high-grade
uranium & use that for weapons. They have said they would
trust Russia to produce the low-grade uranium &
give/sell(?) it to Iran.
Iran wants to produce its own fuel. fixme. Why?
5.4 Is Iran in compliance with IAEA?
Apparently, there's no simple answer to that. Here's an
excerpt from
the most recent report I found about the issue
at IAEA's web
site.
The report is called ``Safeguards Statement for 2004''.
The paragraphs were numbered, but that didn't transfer when
I copied-&-pasted the section into this report. I have
also removed the footnote superscripts for readability.
1.6 Islamic Republic of Iran
During 2004, the Director General submitted four reports
to the Board of Governors on the implementation of the
comprehensive safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic
of Iran1, and the Board adopted four resolutions on the
subject1.
At the end of 2003, Iran signed an additional protocol and
agreed to cooperate with the Agency in accordance with the
provisions of the protocol pending its entry into
force. Though Irana's cooperation improved, information
- particularly that related to its past uranium gas
centrifuge enrichment activities - continued to be slow
in coming and was provided in reaction to Agency
requests. In April 2004, Iran committed itself to a joint
action plan with the Agency and to a timetable for dealing
with outstanding issues regarding the verification of
Irana's nuclear programme. Corrective actions are being
taken by Iran. In May 2004, Iran delivered to the Agency
its initial declarations under the additional protocol.
Verification of the correctness and completeness of
IranA's declarations is ongoing. There are two major
issues of direct relevance to these efforts: the origin of
low enriched uranium (LEU) and high enriched uranium (HEU)
particle contamination found at various locations in Iran;
and the extent of Irana's enrichment programme.
In addition to its implementation of the comprehensive
safeguards agreement and additional protocol with Iran, in
2004 the Agency performed verification activities related
to IranA's voluntary suspension of enrichment-related and
reprocessing activities. In November 2003, the Board had
endorsed the Director GeneralA's acceptance of IranA's
invitation to verify implementation of IranA's decision to
voluntarily suspend such activities. In November 2004,
Iran informed the Agency that it had extended the
suspension to include all enrichment-related (including
uranium conversion) and reprocessing activities throughout
Iran. Subsequently, as endorsed by the Board1, the
Agency began its verification of the extended suspension.
It looks like the most accurage single-sentence summary
might be ``Regardless is whether Iran was in compliance in 2004, it
was not so far out of compliance that IAEA complained''.
5.5 Have there been IAEA inspections in Iran?
It is possible, but IAEA's web
site doesn't say. Inspections
would fall under their Safeguards & Verifications duty.
Here are some possible answers, in no particular ordre.
- They are afraid that Iran will development nuclear
weapons, not just nuclear energy. (In other words,
exactly the reason they claim.)
- They are afraid that Iran's nuclear energy program
will compete with American interests in the petroleum
industry.
- They are afraid that a peaceful nuclear energy program
in Iran will prove that Iran isn't all bad. It'll give
Iran a friendly, justifiable, international clout which
could be used to counteract America's bullying power.
- They are afraid that a peaceful nuclear program in
Iran will give Iran international clout which will
increase their anti-Israeli influence among countries
which already hate Israel.
- 1
-
Michael Bowman.
Us senators urge sanctions against iran over nuclear program.
Voice of America,
January 2006.
http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-01-15-voa15.cfm.
- 2
-
Eric Margolis.
After iraq, bush will attack his real target.
Common
Dreams, November 2002.
http://www.commondreams.org/views02/1110-07.htm.
- 3
-
U.S. Department of State.
Country reports on human rights practices: Iran 2001.
web site,
March 2002.
http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2001/nea/8251.htm.
- 4
-
Bary Schweid.
U.S. willing to talk with iran about iraq.
ABC News
International, March 2006.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1732982.
- 5
-
staff.
Blair warns iran over iraq bombs.
BBC News, October
2005.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle%5Feast/4315924.stm.
- 6
-
staff.
Ahmadinejad: Holocaust a myth.
Aljazeera.net, January 2006.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/60AE1720-F333-4869-974D-3B69283105BF.htm.
- 7
-
staff.
Annan: Iran still keen on nuclear talks.
Aljazeera.Net, January 2006.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/088855CB-5B18-427B-B688-8D6D56BB558B.htm.
- 8
-
staff.
Bush blames iran for some bombs in iraq.
CBC News, March 2006.
http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/03/13/iran-iraq-bush060313.html.
- 9
-
staff.
Bush defends iraq policy, points finger at iran.
Reuters, March
2006.
http://today.reuters.com/News/newsArticle.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyID=2006-03-13T195920Z%5F01%5FN13219621%5FRTRUKOC%5F0%5FUS-IRAQ-BUSH.xml.
- 10
-
staff.
Bush identifies iran as major challenge to security.
M&C
News, March 2006.
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/northamerica/article%5F1138716.php/Bush%5Fidentifies%5FIran%5Fas%5Fmajor%5Fchallenge%5Fto%5Fsecurity.
- 11
-
staff.
Diplomacy, only answer to current nuclear standoff: Fm spokesman.
Tehran Times,
January 2006.
http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=1/16/2006&Cat=2&Num=002.
- 12
-
staff.
Eu leaders say iran talks are dead.
Aljazeera.net, January 2006.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/184CEB69-5331-4F81-8823-6031005EE7D5.htm.
- 13
-
staff.
Iran and russian begin nuclear talks.
Aljazeera.net, January 2006.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/30DD976E-621A-4314-B040-D9DB407D01C4.htm.
- 14
-
staff.
Iran ready to talk with US about iraq.
The Jerusalem Post,
March 2006.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1139395617863.
- 15
-
staff.
Q&a: Iran's nuclear research.
Aljazeera.net, January 2006.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/CD4F0499-0023-49FE-831D-AF86BF590D94.htm.
- 16
-
staff.
Tehran chokes in thick smog.
Aljazeera.net, January 2006.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/2354FC10-C244-440B-B716-9D3CDEA6FF53.htm.
- 17
-
Gene Michael Stover.
Web (& print) log 2006.
http://cybertiggyr.com/gene/, 2005.
http://cybertiggyr.com/gene/tae2006/.
Gene Michael Stover
2008-04-20
